The Challenge XXX – Preseason Predictions

We didn’t guess too well last season, but let’s try again anyway!

Dirty XXX

Last season Mix predicted Laurel, Cara Maria and Nicole would have the most fantasy points for the women, with Laurel, Cara Maria and Nicole also finishing the season in that order (only Nicole who can’t do basic math in 3rd place was correct, she was also the third best in fantasy points on the female side).

I was correct with Smashley for the most fantasy points (though I didn’t even predict her in the final, let alone winning), thought Nicole would be second (slept on Camila), and Cara Maria third. I thought Camila would beat Cara Maria in a final? What was I thinking? Cara Maria would have destroyed that final. It was accurate and interesting that I thought Camila would have a good season and she did, but as shown from Cara Maria on Champs vs. Pros, she’s the real deal. I predicted Jenna in her favorite spot, 3rd place in a final.

Mix guessed Bananas, Cory and CT would have the most for the men (Cory actually the best for the men, CT 4th best, Bananas a bust with 40 points). I had Cory correct at #1, but also went bust with Bananas, and failed to anticipate Nelson, Shane and Hunter outperforming Champ CT. Mix guessed Bananas, CT and Darrell for the final… I said CT, Cory and Darrell, but we both missed CT as the only one who made it of the Champs.

The Challenge Invasion - End of Season Points by Player

The Challenge Invasion – End of Season Points by Player

With that in mind, this year I thought I’d put even more though into what the format could mean, but it’s like Free Agents, so who knows.

Nevertheless, this season ladies first.

Most Fantasy Points – Women

#1 – Kailah

Kailah had a strong rookie season on Invasion. She’s like Jenna with more muscle, and possibly a KailAHHH!!!! crazy temper in there. From the Challenge special, Kailah could go full on “look what you missed out on, Cory” and bang Hunter in front of him (and Smashley, just for fun).

#2 – Jenna

Jenna seemingly did nothing but cry about a hook up rumor, and she got 130 points on Invasion. There’s no Zach around to stop her from flirting, she has her BFF KailAHH!!!! to drag her into a fight against Amanda and Smashley… and maybe she’ll slap Aneesa if Aneesa tries to make out.

#3 – Camila

Cara Maria looked unbeatable on Champs. Clear MVP. Her performance in the final was outstanding. It’s only right at this point to consider her the one to beat. She also seemingly formed a friendship/alliance with Camila. Camila is not getting less crazy as she ages, and alliances like Bananas and Cara Maria could keep her around deep into the season.

Most Fantasy Points – Men

#1 – Nelson

Nelson is also coming off a strong season and way in shape. He hooked up with LaToya last season, so maybe they’ll do that again, althought LaToya looks very different now. She looks like she had a nose job. Even if they don’t, maybe he’ll hook up with Aneesa! Or Veronica. From the preview show, it seems he may be the leader of the anti-veteran Are You The One? side of the game… and even try to recruit real Derrick to his side. Nelson guy is not afraid to play dirty and fight and almost cry about his upbringing.

AND he gets in a fight in the trailer!

#2 – Cory

I can see his buddy Nelson coming ahead of Cory in the game and in the drama. However, three chicks Cory has hooked up with (Camila, Aneesa, & Kailah) are on this season. You have one giant orgy to arrange, Cory! Oh, and on the preview special, it seems like everyone is after Cory.

#3 – Jordan

It was tough between Jordan and Hunter (as Hunter might be on steroids and has an awful temper, and chicks will hook up with him and his southern charm). But I don’t know how well Hunter will do against Jordan, Bananas, Darrell, Leroy and other more strategic players. Jordan knows the game, but is still shady and hooks up. The fight with Aneesa in the preview special is also a sign that mature Jordan from Champs vs. Pros was a limited edition thing.

Winners – Women

#1 – Cara Maria – she’s a beast

#2 – Amanda – she can pair up with Nelson and be scrappy like Camila… she’s almost like Jenna, but can eat some organ meat

#3 – Tori – my pick for Rookie of the Season

Winners – Men

#1 – Derrick (real Derrick from Road Rules) – just like CT came out of retirement to win, divorced Derrick looks like he’s in good shape and will be underestimated next to Darrell, CT and Bananas.

#2 – CT – he’s strong, but beatable

#3 – Devin – he’s weaseled his way into 3rd place before, I think he can do it again. I mean, wouldn’t you keep him around for a final?

Here are Mix’s picks:

Most Fantasy Points – Men

#1 – Cory – he has lasted far in every Challenge he has been on, and he is willing and able to hook up with multiple girls per season.  Kailah and Camila are both on this season, so there is definitely possibility for some drama/arguments.  And he seems genuinely well liked by the others guys; he is unlikely to have as big a target on his back as Bananas or others.  Although he had a poor performance in the Invasion finals, remember that CT didn’t win a final until his ninth season.  Cory obviously isn’t CT, but I’m just saying that one poor finals performance does not mean that Cory can’t win or finish in second this season.

#2 – Nelson

Nelson may not have Cory’s hook-up ability, but he is more of a hot-head than Cory and more likely to get into fights.  And he proved on Invasion that he actually has athletic ability.

#3 – Darrell

There are so many good males on this season that I could have picked upwards of ten different people here.  Even though Darrell won’t hook up or fight, I think he is the best bet to make it far into the season.  He won Champs vs. Pros and he could have easily won Invasion.  Even though he lost to CT on Invasion, I am not convinced that CT is better than Darrell at this point in their careers, particularly if the elimination challenge isn’t focused on brute strength.

Most Fantasy Points – Women

#1 – Cara Maria

I think she is clearly the strongest competitor among the females this season, so she is the best bet to get to the finals and win.  And she has proved in the past that she is willing to hook up.

#2 – Camila

I never considered Camila to be that great of a competitor, even though she won BOTE1 with Bananas.  But she arrived to Invasion clearly in great shape, and ended up coming in second.  We also know that she is willing to hook up, and “The Camilinator” comes out at least once per season.  With many people on this season that either push her buttons or with whom she’s hooked up (Cory, Tony, Bananas), she is usually a solid bet for points.

#3 – Kailah

Kailah had a terrific rookie season, proving her mettle in the challenges, hooking up with Cory, and even garnering the rare peeing points.  I’m cautiously optimistic that she can be even better in Season 2.  While she is definitely in good shape, I still remember that instance on RW: Go Big or Go Home in which she almost got sent home because she could barely hike up a mountain.  And while she hooked up with Dione on Real World and Cory on Invasion, I hope she doesn’t become skittish about on-air hookups (which sometimes happens to challengers).  Kailah also is very disliked by others in the house, so while she has a target on her back, she also has the ability to get into a lot of arguments.  And unlike on Invasion, she has one of her former Real World castmates (Chris, who now apparently goes by “Ammo”) in the house, and he will presumably have her back.

Winners – Women
#1 – Cara Maria – see fantasy reasons
#2 – Camila – see fantasy reasons
#3 – Jenna – let’s be honest – compared to the males, this is a relatively weak female field.  Because it is the thirtieth season, I wish the show had brought back terrific female champions like Laurel, Emily S, Paula, or Evelyn (I assume Sarah is a non-starter after what happened on Rivals3).  Alas no.  That leaves open a possibility for a female to win her first challenge.  Why not Jenna?  She made it to the finals of BOTE2, Bloodlines, and Rivals 3 with bad-to-mediocre partners (Jay, Brianna, and Vince).  Everyone always underestimates her but she is a strong competitor who never backs down from anything except eating challenges, her Achilles heel.
Winners – Men
#1 – Darrell – see fantasy reasons
#2 – CT –  CT is clearly no longer the player he once was, as even he admits that he now has a “dad bod.”  But he won Invasion and could have won Champs vs. Pros if he didn’t gallantly eliminate himself because he thought that Wes deserved to be in the final.  And no one wants to go in against CT in an elimination.
#3 – Leroy – I’ve always thought that Leroy had the potential to be a great challenger ever since he made it to the finals on Rivals, his first season.  But he has been hurt by numerous subpar partners (Naomi,Ty, Candice, Averey).  The only other time he had a good partner – Nia and later Theresa on BOTE2 – he made it to the finals.  And although he didn’t make the final on Free Agents – the only time he hasn’t played with a partner – he was eliminated by CT, so I can give him a pass on that.

 

 

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